Wicked Problems: U.S. Gun Control (Part 1)

Values analysis is an extremely powerful tool in the hands of the policy analyst. We have already seen how it can help develop better advice, improve program design, and illuminate the complexities of contentious policy questions. And values analysis can do so much more: it can also help to develop novel policy packages – ones that may even be more effective than the same old solutions we tend to default to. To prove it, let’s dig into one of the most contentious issues for our neighbors to the south: gun control.

It’s no secret that gun violence is a major public policy issue in the United States. Rates of firearm-related deaths are higher in the U.S. than in any other OECD country, a rate eight times higher than in Canada and nearly 100 times higher than in the UK.  Worse still, gun violence soared in 2020 and 2021, perhaps signaling the end of a multi-decade decline in violent crime. As of 2021, 72% of Americans believe gun violence to be either a “very big problem” or a “moderately big problem.”

However, American citizens remain divided about the correct policy response. Only 53% of U.S. citizens support stricter gun control, far from an overwhelming majority. A subsection of the population even views more guns as the solution to gun violence, as expressed by the National Rifle Association chief Wayne LaPierre: “the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is with a good guy with a gun.”

Regardless of the debate around policy, Americans are voting with their wallets. Guns have been flying off the shelves in 2020 and 2021, likely due to perceived instability brought by the pandemic and the palpable general civil unrest of recent years. If the solution to gun violence is the restriction of ownership, the task becomes more and more difficult every day; it’s easier to prevent the purchase of new guns than to pry them out of the hands of people who already own them.

Articles and blog posts abound claiming to have the found the solution for this wicked problem (ahem). For example, the moderate conservative David Frum believes he has the solution, which he outlines in his recent article in the Atlantic, “Responsible Gun Ownership is a Lie”. With federal gun control efforts in limbo because of Congressional deadlock, Frum focuses his efforts on limiting gun proliferation, arguing that reducing gun violence is too important to wait for a grand bargain at the federal level.

To bypass the political impasse, Frum contends that gun control activists should follow the example of Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD), which successfully changed social attitudes about drunk driving through public awareness campaigns. In the U.S., there have been harsh laws against drunk driving for as long as there have been cars. Even so, up until the 1970s, Americans saw the ability to drive after a few drinks as a symbol of manliness and vigor, and the laws were rarely enforced, as Frum notes. MADD altered the public perception of impaired driving by educating the public about its harms, which has led to the current social stigmatization of driving under the influence. The story of drunk driving is much the same in Canada, which MADD taking a central role in shifting people’s views.

Frum argues that gun ownership should become similarly stigmatized. To follow MADD’s strategy, advocates need to tailor their communications to the 36% of Americans who do not own a gun but might buy one in the future. As Frum points out, most gun buyers justify their purchase on security grounds, viewing their weapon as a way to protect their families and property. Indeed, most newly sold weapons are handguns, which are the most obviously useful for the defence of person, home, or property, because they are portable, concealable, easy to use, and theoretically effective against intruders. Frum sees this expansion of gun ownership as a failure of communications: people believe that guns make them safer, so gun control activists should focus on myth busting and show Americans that gun ownership is dangerous. As he vividly expresses:

[Potential gun owners] need to meet the grandparents who stuffed a gun beneath a pillow while cooking—and returned to their granddaughter’s dead body. They need to see the man in prison because he lost his temper over a parking space. They need to listen to the parents whose teenager found a suicide weapon that had not been locked away. They need to know more about the woman killed in the electronics aisle at an Idaho Walmart when her 2-year-old accidentally discharged the gun she carried in her purse.

If you’ve read other Values Added articles, you might already see the potential flaw in this approach: it’s entirely based on the Care value (i.e. causing pain is wrong, especially to the vulnerable). That doesn’t make it a bad strategy, since many Americans who are considering purchasing a firearm subscribe to the liberal moral matrix, which prioritizes Care over the other five values. However, this approach will inevitably have a limited audience. It will not resonate strongly with conservatives, and libertarians are unlikely to be swayed at all. As a result, values analysis suggests that Frum is preaching to the choir. He is employing a liberal moral argument to target individuals who are highly susceptible to his communications strategy, but who probably also already support stronger gun control measures. Therefore, Frum’s approach is therefore unlikely to persuade the very groups that most need to be targeted (i.e. conservatives and libertarians), rendering his solution of questionable efficacity.

The purpose of this website is not to change hearts and minds on political issues or to advocate for stricter gun control in the U.S. Also, I’m Canadian, so no one cares what I think about American gun laws. However, views on gun ownership are steeped in differing moral and ethical frameworks, making it particularly fertile ground to show the importance of values analysis.

Next week, I’m going to pretend that I was a public servant for the U.S. federal government, and that I was tasked with designing more publicly acceptable gun control policies. I will outline the main values that are operational in the gun control debate (beyond Care) and discuss how policies could be tailored to minimize the violation of these values.

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