On September 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin escalated his war in Ukraine by declaring a partial military mobilization (i.e., limited conscription). The “partial” element of the declaration was somewhat of a misnomer – anyone may receive summons to the front lines. Although the Russian government stated that all the 300,000 drafted Russians would have previous military experience, this does not appear to have occurred. Reports abound of unprepared Russians receiving draft notices, including the old and infirm. Even a man in a wheelchair received a draft notice. The draft has been so poorly handled that Putin himself, who almost never acknowledges problems in his government, admitted that mistakes were made.
Facing the prospect of lining up against a motivated and successful Ukrainian army, hundreds of thousands of Russians are heading for the exits. Flights out of Russia immediately sold out. Lines to cross the border into Georgia and Kazakhstan, which offer visa-free entry to Russians, stretched for dozens of kilometers. At least 200,000 Russians fled the country following the announcement of the draft.
These events present Western countries with a choice: should we let Russians in or not? European governments have expressed different views, partially rooted in their perception of the potential risks and rewards of an open-door policy, as well as historical experiences vis-à-vis Russia. Germany seems keen to accept Russians fleeing the draft. Its Justice Minister tweeted that any Russian who “hates Putin’s way and loves liberal democracy” is welcome. France seems broadly aligned with Germany, although the government has been less forthcoming about its policy intentions.
Read more